Monitoring the evolution of vaccine-derived poliovirus in East and Southern African countries, 2010 - 2021.

Introduction: the Africa region was certified indigenous wild poliovirus-free in August 2020. Countries in East and Southern Africa have, during acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) and environmental surveillance (ES), detected equally concerning vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPVs) that have not been systematically documented to guide programming in the sub-region. The study documents trends and salient observations of the VDPVs by country of detection, for 11 years from 2010 to 2021. Methods: we conducted secondary data analysis, a descriptive study design, by deploying field and laboratory of AFP and environmental surveillance databases of the 20 East and Southern African countries from 2010 to 2021. Results: a total of 318 VDPVs were reported over the study period. The majority were from AFP cases (58.8%) and the rest equally distributed between healthy community children and environmental surveillance sources. More polioviruses were detected after 2016 than during the period before. We observed that more boys were affected by VDPVs compared to girls. Children under 5 years were more affected than other age groups, with a mean age of 3.6 years. Delay of samples in the field seemed to increase the likelihood of not reporting VDPVs and not mounting timely public health detailed investigations and vaccination responses. Conclusion: the study provides useful evolutional trends of VDPVs for surveillance and vaccination programming. We also noted that the VDPV2s have been increasing after the 2016 tOPV to oral polio vaccine (bOPV) switch. The COVID-19 pandemic emergence in 2020, led to a decline in AFP, ES surveillance, and immunization activities. Our findings point to the need to implement enhanced tailored childhood immunization recovery strategies and to speed up the use of inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) to boost population immunity.

Immunogenicity and safety of adsorbed diphtheria-purified pertussis-tetanus-inactivated polio (Sabin strain)-Haemophilus type b conjugate combined vaccine (DPT-IPV-Hib) in healthy Japanese Infants ≥ 2 and < 43 months of Age: A phase III, multicenter, active controlled, assessor-blinded, randomized, parallel-group study.

OBJECTIVE: This study investigated the immunogenicity and safety of a pentavalent vaccine Gobik (DPT-IPV-Haemophilus influenzae type b [Hib]) in healthy Japanese infants aged ≥ 2 and < 43 months using a concomitant vaccination with ActHIB® (Hib) and Tetrabik (DPT-IPV) as a comparator. METHODS: This study was conducted as a phase 3, multicenter, active controlled, assessor-blinded, randomized, parallel-group study. Participants received a total of 4 subcutaneous doses (3 primary immunization doses and a booster dose) of either the experimental drug (DPT-IPV-Hib) or the active comparator (Hib + DPT-IPV). The primary endpoints were the anti-PRP antibody prevalence rate with ≥ 1 µg/mL, and the antibody prevalence rates against pertussis, diphtheria toxin, tetanus toxin, and attenuated poliovirus after the primary immunization. RESULTS: In 267 randomized participants (133 in the DPT-IPV-Hib group and 134 in the Hib + DPT-IPV group), the antibody prevalence rates after the primary immunization in both groups were 100.0 % and 88.7 % for anti-PRP antibody with ≥ 1 µg/mL, 99.2 % and 98.5 % against diphtheria toxin, and 100.0 % and 99.2 % against tetanus toxin, respectively. The antibody prevalence rates against pertussis and attenuated poliovirus were 100.0 % in both groups. The non-inferiority of the DPT-IPV-Hib group to the Hib + DPT-IPV group was verified for all measured antibodies. In both groups, all the GMTs of antibodies after the primary immunization were higher than those before the first dose, and those after the booster dose were higher than those after the primary immunization. No safety issues were identified. CONCLUSION: A single-agent Gobik, the first DPT-IPV-Hib pentavalent vaccine approved in Japan, was confirmed to simultaneously provide primary and booster immunizations against Hib infection, pertussis, diphtheria, tetanus, and poliomyelitis and to have a preventive effect and safety comparable to concomitant vaccination with Hib (ActHIB®) and DPT-IPV quadrivalent vaccine (Tetrabik).

Exploring the path to polio eradication: insights from consecutive seroprevalence surveys among Pakistani children.

Introduction: After trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (tOPV) cessation, Pakistan has maintained immunity to type 2 poliovirus by administering inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) in routine immunization, alongside monovalent OPV type 2 (mOPV2) and IPV in supplementary immunization activities (SIAs). This study assesses the change in poliovirus type 2 immunity after tOPV withdrawal and due to SIAs with mOPV2 and IPV among children aged 6-11 months. Methods: Three cross-sectional sequential serological surveys were conducted in 12 polio high-risk areas of Pakistan. 25 clusters from each geographical stratum were selected utilizing probability proportional to size. Results: Seroprevalence of type 2 poliovirus was 49%, with significant variation observed among surveyed areas; <30% in Pishin, >80% in Killa Abdullah, Mardan & Swabi, and Rawalpindi. SIAs with IPV improved immunity from 38 to 57% in Karachi and 60 to 88% in Khyber. SIAs with IPV following mOPV2 improved immunity from 62 to 65% in Killa Abdullah, and combined mOPV2 and IPV SIAs in Pishin improved immunity from 28 to 89%. Results also reflected that immunity rates for serotypes 1 and 3 were consistently above 90% during all three phases and across all geographical areas. Conclusion: The study findings highlight the importance of implementing effective vaccination strategies to prevent the re-emergence of poliovirus. Moreover, the results provide crucial information for policymakers working toward achieving global polio eradication.

A phase 3 randomized, open-label study evaluating the immunogenicity and safety of concomitant and staggered administration of a live, pentavalent rotavirus vaccine and an inactivated poliomyelitis vaccine in healthy infants in China.

This open-label, randomized, phase 3 study in China (V260-074; NCT04481191) evaluated the immunogenicity and safety of concomitant and staggered administration of three doses of an oral, live, pentavalent rotavirus vaccine (RV5) and three doses of an intramuscular, inactivated poliomyelitis vaccine (IPV) in 400 healthy infants. The primary objective was the non-inferiority of neutralizing antibody (nAb) responses in the concomitant- versus the staggered-use groups. Antibody responses were measured at baseline and 1-month post-dose 3 (PD3). Parents/legal guardians recorded adverse events for 30 or 15 d after study vaccinations in the concomitant-use or staggered-use groups, respectively. At PD3, >98% of participants seroconverted to all three poliovirus types, and the primary objective was met as lower bounds of the two-sided 95% CI for between-group difference in nAb seroconversion percentages ranged from - 4.3% to - 1.6%, for all poliovirus types, p < .001. At PD3, geometric mean titers (GMTs) of nAb responses to poliovirus types 1, 2, and 3 in the concomitant-use group and the staggered-use group were comparable; 100% of participants had nAb titers ≥1:8 and ≥1:64 for all poliovirus types. Anti-rotavirus serotype-specific IgA GMTs and participants with ≥3-fold rise in postvaccination titers from baseline were comparable between groups. Administration of RV5 and IPV was well tolerated with comparable safety profiles in both groups. The immunogenicity of IPV in the concomitant-use group was non-inferior to the staggered-use group and RV5 was immunogenic in both groups. No safety concerns were identified. These data support the concomitant use of RV5 and IPV in healthy Chinese infants.

High throughput AS LNA qPCR method for the detection of a specific mutation in poliovirus vaccine strains.

Sabin Inactivated Poliovirus Vaccine (sIPV) has become one of the preferred vaccination options for the last step in the Poliovirus eradication program. Sequencing of poliovirus samples is needed during the manufacturing of poliovirus vaccines to assure the safety and immunogenicity of these vaccines. Next-generation sequencing analysis is the current costly and time-consuming gold standard for monitoring the manufacturing processes. We developed a low-cost and quick, highly sensitive, and allele-specific locked nucleic acid-probe-based reverse transcription quantitative PCR alternative that can accurately detect mutations in poliovirus vaccine samples during process development, scaling up, and release. Using the frequently in vitro occurring and viral replication-impacting VP1-E295K mutation as a showcase, we show that this technology can accurately detect E295K mutations in poliovirus 2 samples to similar levels as NGS. The qPCR technology was developed employing a synthetic dsDNA fragment-based standard curve containing mixes of E295K-WT (wildtype) and Mut (mutant) synthetic dsDNA fragments ranging from 1 × 107 copies/µL to 1 × 102 copies/µL to achieve a linear correlation with R2 > 0.999, and PCR efficiencies of 95-105 %. Individual standard concentration levels achieved accuracies of ≥92 % (average 96 %) and precisions of ≤17 % (average 3.3 %) RSD. Specificity of locked nucleic acid (LNA)-probes was confirmed in the presence and absence of co-mutations in the probe-binding region. Application of the developed assay to Sabin Poliovirus type 2 production run samples, illustrated a linear relationship with an R2 of 0.994, and an average accuracy of 97.2 % of the variant (allele)-specific AS LNA qPCR result, compared to NGS. The assay showed good sensitivity for poliovirus samples, containing E295K mutation levels between 0 % and 95 % (quantification range). In conclusion, the developed AS LNA qPCR presents a valuable low-cost, and fast tool, suitable for the process development and quality control of polio vaccines.

Antiviral responses induced by Tdap-IPV vaccination are associated with persistent humoral immunity to Bordetella pertussis.

Many countries continue to experience pertussis epidemics despite widespread vaccination. Waning protection after booster vaccination has highlighted the need for a better understanding of the immunological factors that promote durable protection. Here we apply systems vaccinology to investigate antibody responses in adolescents in the Netherlands (N = 14; NL) and the United Kingdom (N = 12; UK) receiving a tetanus-diphtheria-acellular pertussis-inactivated poliovirus (Tdap-IPV) vaccine. We report that early antiviral and interferon gene expression signatures in blood correlate to persistence of pertussis-specific antibody responses. Single-cell analyses of the innate response identified monocytes and myeloid dendritic cells (MoDC) as principal responders that upregulate antiviral gene expression and type-I interferon cytokine production. With public data, we show that Tdap vaccination stimulates significantly lower antiviral/type-I interferon responses than Tdap-IPV, suggesting that IPV may promote antiviral gene expression. Subsequent in vitro stimulation experiments demonstrate TLR-dependent, IPV-specific activation of the pro-inflammatory p38 MAP kinase pathway in MoDCs. Together, our data provide insights into the molecular host response to pertussis booster vaccination and demonstrate that IPV enhances innate immune activity associated with persistent, pertussis-specific antibody responses.

Immunogenicity and lot-to-lot consistency of booster shot with Sabin inactivated poliomyelitis vaccine in Chinese children aged 18-24 Months: A phase â £ clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: There has been no data on the immunogenicity and safety of the 4th booster dose of the sIPV immunization in 18-24 months old children in post-marketing studies of large cohort providing with robust results. METHOD: In a phase Ⅳ randomized, double-blinded clinical trial, 1200 participants aged 2 months were immunized with three consecutive doses of sIPV at 2, 3, and 4 months old to complete primary immunization. Out of the 1200 participants, 1129 received the 4th dose of sIPV as booster immunization. Immunogenicity was evaluated in 1100 participants. RESULTS: Seropositive rates of the anti-poliovirus type 1, 2, and 3 neutralizing antibodies were 99.9 %, 98.0 %, 98.2 %, respectively, with GMTs of 557.0, 146.1, 362.0 one year after primary vaccination. After booster vaccination between 18 and 24 months old, the seropositive rates for 3 types all reached 100.0 %, with GMTs of 8343.6, 5039.6, 5492.0, respectively. Particularly for the anti-poliovirus type 2 antibody, the GMT was 230.4 after primary immunization, maintained to 146.1 one year after primary immunization, and increased to as high as 5039.6 after booster vaccination. The GMT ratios between each batch groups after booster immunization were between 0.67 and 1.50, meeting the immunological equivalence criteria. The incidence rate of adverse reaction was 23.0 %, which was comparable to those in the phase Ⅲ trial but had a lower incidence. Furthermore, no SUSAR was reported in this study. INTERPRETATION: In conclusion, as the anti-poliovirus antibodies gradually waned one year post sIPV primary vaccination, especially the type 2 antibody waned to a very low level, suggesting the importance of the booster immunization for children at the age of 18-24 months old. The booster shot can greatly enhance the antibody level and protect children from the potential risk of infection with WPV and VDPV by supplementing the anti-poliovirus type 2 immunity gap in the current real world. Clinic Trial Registration. NCT04224519.

Safety of incidental exposure to the novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 in pregnancy: A longitudinal observational study in Mozambique, 2022-2023.

BACKGROUND: To minimize the risk of vaccine-derived poliovirus emergences, the novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 (nOPV2), was bioengineered to have increased genetic stability compared to Sabin OPV and recommended for outbreak response Emergency Use Listing by WHO. Although pregnant women are not a target population for this vaccine, a theoretical risk of incidental exposure exists via pharyngeal or faecal shedding from vaccinated children in the household or close community. METHODS: This was an observational study of pregnant women conducted in Nampula (exposed cohort) and Maputo (non-exposed cohort) in Mozambique from August 2022 to June 2023. Two nOPV2 campaigns were conducted in Nampula and none in Maputo. Women were followed-up during routine prenatal consultation, delivery, and 28-day neonate visits for obstetric anomalies and pregnancy outcomes. Sociodemographic, medical, and obstetric history was captured. RESULTS: Three hundred twenty-six pregnant women were enrolled from Nampula and 940 from Maputo City. Stillbirth prevalence (2·3% vs 1·6%, p = 0·438), low birth weight (8·9% vs 8·2%, p = 0·989), congenital anomalies (1 % vs 0·5%, p = 0·454), neonatal death (2·3% vs 1·6%, p = 0·08), and maternal death (0 % vs 0·2%, p = 0·978) did not differ amongst exposed and non-exposed cohorts. There was an increased rate of pre-term delivery in the exposed cohort (18·4% vs 11·0%, p = 0·011). CONCLUSION: We did not observe an increased frequency of adverse pregnancy outcomes due to passive nOPV2 exposure. A higher frequency of preterm delivery needs to be further investigated. The data reported herein support the continued use of nOPV2 for poliovirus outbreak response and full licensure of the vaccine.

Safety of incidental exposure to the novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 in pregnancy: A longitudinal observational study in Mozambique, 2022-2023

To minimize the risk of vaccine-derived poliovirus emergences, the novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 (nOPV2), was bioengineered to have increased genetic stability compared to Sabin OPV and recommended for outbreak response Emergency Use Listing by WHO. Although pregnant women are not a target population for this vaccine, a theoretical risk of incidental exposure exists via pharyngeal or faecal shedding from vaccinated children in the household or close community. Methods: This was an observational study of pregnant women conducted in Nampula (exposed cohort) and Maputo (non-exposed cohort) in Mozambique from August 2022 to June 2023. Two nOPV2 campaigns were conducted in Nampula and none in Maputo. Women were followed-up during routine prenatal consultation, delivery, and 28-day neonate visits for obstetric anomalies and pregnancy outcomes. Sociodemographic, medical, and obstetric history was captured. Results: Three hundred twenty-six pregnant women were enrolled from Nampula and 940 from Maputo City. Stillbirth prevalence (2·3% vs 1·6%, p = 0·438), low birth weight (8·9% vs 8·2%, p = 0·989), congenital anomalies (1 % vs 0·5%, p = 0·454), neonatal death (2·3% vs 1·6%, p = 0·08), and maternal death (0 % vs 0·2%, p = 0·978) did not differ amongst exposed and non-exposed cohorts. There was an increased rate of pre-term delivery in the exposed cohort (18·4% vs 11·0%, p = 0·011). Conclusion: We did not observe an increased frequency of adverse pregnancy outcomes due to passive nOPV2 exposure. A higher frequency of preterm delivery needs to be further investigated. The data reported herein support the continued use of nOPV2 for poliovirus outbreak response and full licensure of the vaccine.

A phase 4, open-label study to evaluate the safety and immunogenicity of DTaP5-HBV-IPV-Hib in children previously vaccinated with DTaP2-HBV-IPV-Hib or DTaP5-HBV-IPV-Hib (V419-016).

DTaP5-HBV-IPV-Hib (Vaxelis®) is a hexavalent combination vaccine (HV) indicated in infants and toddlers for the prevention of diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, hepatitis B, poliomyelitis, and invasive disease due to Haemophilus influenzae type b. Switching between HVs during the childhood vaccination series is sometimes necessary due to, for example, vaccine availability, health-care provider preference, and/or tender awards. The purpose of this study was to describe the safety, tolerability, and immunogenicity of a booster dose of Vaxelis® in participants who previously received a primary infant series of either DTaP2-HBV-IPV-Hib (Hexyon®) or Vaxelis®. Healthy participants approximately 11-13 months of age who previously received a two-dose primary series of Hexyon® (HHV group) or Vaxelis® (VVV group) all received a Vaxelis® booster dose. Immunogenicity was evaluated by measuring antibody levels to individual vaccine antigens approximately 30 days following booster vaccination. Safety was evaluated as the proportion of participants with adverse events (AEs). The proportions of participants with antibody-specific responses for antigens contained in both Vaxelis® and Hexyon® at 30 days post-toddler-booster vaccination with Vaxelis® were comparable between groups, and higher in the VVV group for Vaxelis® antigens PRN and FIM2/3. The overall proportions of participants with AEs were generally comparable between groups. Following a booster dose of Vaxelis®, immune responses were comparable between groups for all shared antigens, and higher in the VVV group for antigens found only in Vaxelis®. The booster was well tolerated in both groups. These data support the use of Vaxelis® as a booster in mixed HV regimens.

Tolerability, safety, and immunogenicity of the novel oral polio vaccine type 2 in children aged 6 weeks to 59 months in an outbreak response campaign in The Gambia: an observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Novel oral polio vaccine type 2 (nOPV2) has been used to interrupt circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 outbreaks following its WHO emergency use listing. This study reports data on the safety and immunogenicity of nOPV2 over two rounds of a campaign in The Gambia. METHODS: This observational cohort study collected baseline symptoms (vomiting, diarrhoea, irritability, reduced feeding, and reduced activity) and axillary temperature from children aged 6 weeks to 59 months in The Gambia before a series of two rounds of a nOPV2 campaign that took place on Nov 20-26, 2021, and March 19-22, 2022. Serum and stool samples were collected from a subset of the participants. The same symptoms were re-assessed during the week following each dose of nOPV2. Stool samples were collected on days 7 and 28, and serum was collected on day 28 following each dose. Adverse events, including adverse events of special interest, were documented for 28 days after each campaign round. Serum neutralising antibodies were measured by microneutralisation assay, and stool poliovirus excretion was measured by real-time RT-PCR. FINDINGS: Of the 5635 children eligible for the study, 5504 (97·7%) received at least one dose of nOPV2. There was no increase in axillary temperature or in any of the baseline symptoms following either rounds of the campaigns. There were no adverse events of special interest and no other safety signals of concern. Poliovirus type 2 seroconversion rates were 70% (95% CI 62 to 78; 87 of 124 children) following one dose of nOPV2 and 91% (85 to 95; 113 of 124 children) following two doses. Poliovirus excretion on day 7 was lower after the second round (162 of 459 samples; 35·3%, 95% CI 31·1 to 39·8) than after the first round (292 of 658 samples; 44·4%, 40·6 to 48·2) of the campaign (difference -9·1%; 95% CI -14·8 to -3·3), showing the induction of mucosal immunity. INTERPRETATION: In a campaign in west Africa, nOPV2 was well tolerated and safe. High rates of seroconversion and evidence of mucosal immunity support the licensure and WHO prequalification of this vaccine. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Effectiveness of poliovirus vaccines against circulating vaccine-derived type 2 poliomyelitis in Nigeria between 2017 and 2022: a case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Between 2018 and 2022, Nigeria experienced continuous transmission of circulating vaccine-derived type 2 poliovirus (cVDPV2), with 526 cases of cVDPV2 poliomyelitis detected in total and approximately 180 million doses of monovalent type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (mOPV2) and 450 million doses of novel type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (nOPV2) delivered in outbreak response campaigns. Inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) was introduced into routine immunisation in 2015, with a second dose added in 2021. We aimed to estimate the effectiveness of nOPV2 against cVDPV2 paralysis and compare nOPV2 effectiveness with that of mOPV2 and IPV. METHODS: In this retrospective case-control study, we used acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance data in Nigeria from Jan 1, 2017, to Dec 31, 2022, using age-matched, onset-matched, and location-matched cVDPV2-negative AFP cases as test-negative controls. We also did a parallel prospective study from March, 2021, using age-matched community controls from the same settlement as the cases. We included children born after May, 2016, younger than 60 months, for whom polio immunisation history (doses of OPV from campaigns and IPV) was reported. We estimated the per-dose effectiveness of nOPV2 against cVDPV2 paralysis using conditional logistic regression and compared nOPV2 effectiveness with that of mOPV2 and IPV. FINDINGS: In the retrospective case-control study, we identified 509 cVDPV2 poliomyelitis cases in Nigeria with case verification and paralysis onset between Jan 1, 2017, and Dec 31, 2022. Of these, 82 children were excluded for not meeting inclusion criteria, and 363 (85%) of 427 eligible cases were matched to 1303 test-negative controls. Cases reported fewer OPV and IPV doses than test-negative controls (mean number of OPV doses 5·9 [SD 4·2] in cases vs 6·7 [4·3] in controls; one or more IPV doses reported in 95 [26%] of 363 cases vs 513 [39%] of 1303 controls). We found low per-dose effectiveness of nOPV2 (12%, 95% CI -2 to 25) and mOPV2 (17%, 3 to 29), but no significant difference between the two vaccines (p=0·67). The estimated effectiveness of one IPV dose was 43% (23 to 58). In the prospective study, 181 (46%) of 392 eligible cases were matched to 1557 community controls. Using community controls, we found a high effectiveness of IPV (89%, 95% CI 83 to 93, for one dose), a low per-dose effectiveness of nOPV2 (-23%, -45 to -5) and mOPV2 (1%, -23 to 20), and no significant difference between the per-dose effectiveness of nOPV2 and mOPV2 (p=0·12). INTERPRETATION: We found no significant difference in estimated effectiveness of the two oral vaccines, supporting the recommendation that the more genetically stable nOPV2 should be preferred in cVDPV2 outbreak response. Our findings highlight the role of IPV and the necessity of strengthening routine immunisation, the primary route through which IPV is delivered. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and UK Medical Research Council.

Trade-offs of different poliovirus vaccine options for outbreak response in the United States and other countries that only use inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) in routine immunization.

Delays in achieving polio eradication have led to ongoing risks of poliovirus importations that may cause outbreaks in polio-free countries. Because of the low, but non-zero risk of paralysis with oral poliovirus vaccines (OPVs), countries that achieve and maintain high national routine immunization coverage have increasingly shifted to exclusive use of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) for all preventive immunizations. However, immunization coverage within countries varies, with under-vaccinated subpopulations potentially able to sustain transmission of imported polioviruses and experience local outbreaks. Due to its cost, ease-of-use, and ability to induce mucosal immunity, using OPV as an outbreak control measure offers a more cost-effective option in countries in which OPV remains in use. However, recent polio outbreaks in IPV-only countries raise questions about whether and when IPV use for outbreak response may fail to stop poliovirus transmission and what consequences may follow from using OPV for outbreak response in these countries. We systematically reviewed the literature to identify modeling studies that explored the use of IPV for outbreak response in IPV-only countries. In addition, applying a model of the 2022 type 2 poliovirus outbreak in New York, we characterized the implications of using different OPV formulations for outbreak response instead of IPV. We also explored the hypothetical scenario of the same outbreak except for type 1 poliovirus instead of type 2. We find that using IPV for outbreak response will likely only stop outbreaks for polioviruses of relatively low transmission potential in countries with very high overall immunization coverage, seasonal transmission dynamics, and only if IPV immunization interventions reach some unvaccinated individuals. Using OPV for outbreak response in IPV-only countries poses substantial risks and challenges that require careful consideration, but may represent an option to consider for some outbreaks in some populations depending on the properties of the available vaccines and coverage attainable.

Modeling undetected poliovirus circulation following the 2022 outbreak in the United States.

BACKGROUND: New York State (NYS) reported a polio case (June 2022) and outbreak of imported type 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV2) (last positive wastewater detection in February 2023), for which uncertainty remains about potential ongoing undetected transmission. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Extending a prior deterministic model, we apply an established stochastic modeling approach to characterize the confidence about no circulation (CNC) of cVDPV2 as a function of time since the last detected signal of transmission (i.e. poliovirus positive acute flaccid myelitis case or wastewater sample). RESULTS: With the surveillance coverage for the NYS population majority and its focus on outbreak counties, modeling suggests a high CNC (95%) within 3-10 months of the last positive surveillance signal, depending on surveillance sensitivity and population mixing patterns. Uncertainty about surveillance sensitivity implies longer durations required to achieve higher CNC. CONCLUSIONS: In populations that maintain high overall immunization coverage with inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), rare polio cases may occur in un(der)-vaccinated individuals. Modeling demonstrates the unlikeliness of type 2 outbreaks reestablishing endemic transmission or resulting in large absolute numbers of paralytic cases. Achieving and maintaining high immunization coverage with IPV remains the most effective measure to prevent outbreaks and shorten the duration of imported poliovirus transmission.

Coordinated global cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine use: Options and potential consequences.

Due to the very low, but nonzero, paralysis risks associated with the use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV), eradicating poliomyelitis requires ending all OPV use globally. The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) coordinated cessation of Sabin type 2 OPV (OPV2 cessation) in 2016, except for emergency outbreak response. However, as of early 2023, plans for cessation of bivalent OPV (bOPV, containing types 1 and 3 OPV) remain undefined, and OPV2 use for outbreak response continues due to ongoing transmission of type 2 polioviruses and reported type 2 cases. Recent development and use of a genetically stabilized novel type 2 OPV (nOPV2) leads to additional potential vaccine options and increasing complexity in strategies for the polio endgame. Prior applications of integrated global risk, economic, and poliovirus transmission modeling consistent with GPEI strategic plans that preceded OPV2 cessation explored OPV cessation dynamics and the evaluation of options to support globally coordinated risk management efforts. The 2022-2026 GPEI strategic plan highlighted the need for early bOPV cessation planning. We review the published modeling and explore bOPV cessation immunization options as of 2022, assuming that the GPEI partners will not support restart of the use of any OPV type in routine immunization after a globally coordinated cessation of such use. We model the potential consequences of globally coordinating bOPV cessation in 2027, as anticipated in the 2022-2026 GPEI strategic plan. We do not find any options for bOPV cessation likely to succeed without a strategy of bOPV intensification to increase population immunity prior to cessation.

Two-Year Duration of Immunity of Inactivated Poliovirus Vaccine: A Follow-up Study in Pakistan in 2020.

This was a follow-up study conducted in 2020 assessing changes in levels of type 2 poliovirus-neutralizing antibodies 2 years postimmunization in children who received inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) in Karachi, Pakistan. Unexpectedly, the findings revealed an increase in seroprevalence of type 2 antibodies from 73.1% to 81.6% 1 year and 2 years after IPV, respectively. The increase in type 2 immunity could result from the intensive transmission of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) in Karachi during the second year of IPV administration. This study suggests that the cVDPV2 outbreak detected in Pakistan infected large proportions of children in Karachi. Clinical Trials Registration . NCT03286803.